Events Timeline

Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty Workshop

05 Mar 2019 8:30 - 19:00

The Analysis Under Uncertainty for Decision-Makers (AU4DM) Network is hosting its 2nd annual Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty Workshop on 5th March 2019 at Prince Phillip House, 3 Carlton Terrace, London SW1Y 5DG. This one-day workshop will feature presentations and discussions from experts in the field, and offers the choice of four new 'clinics' for participants to choose from. When completing this registration form you will be asked to select a prefered 'clinic' to participate in, and your interest in giving a pop-up talk.

Tentative agenda:
• Breakfast and registration
• Keynote, speaker TBD: 'What do decision-makers want from the analytical community?'
• Pop-up talks by participants (please see below)
• Coffee break
• Pop-up talks by participants (continued)
• Lunch
• Clinics (please see below)
• Coffee break
• Panel session chaired by Nick Mabey, CEO - E3G: 'What do you need to make a good decision?'
• Networking Session

*Clinics*: We will be conducting clinics to develop skills related to decision-making under uncertainty. Please read the following descriptions and rank your preferred clinic to participate in. We can't guarantee the first choice of all attendees but try to get everyone their first or second choice.

*Clinic 1: 'Expert Judgement Best Practise' with Mark Burgman
This clinic will take ideas and contexts from the participants to identify where expert judgement is used and what the problems are that might arise from it. The session will explore ways of engaging with experts to generate more accurate and better conditioned estimate of quantities, and the outcomes of future events. Participants will leave with some simple and effective strategies for improving the quality of expert inputs to decisions.

*Clinic 2: 'What does it mean to be a Decision Quality Organisation?' with Craig Smiley, Emma Soane, Simon French and Martine Barons
Decision Quality is a framework for ensuring the key elements necessary for making a good decision are present at the time the decision is being made. This session will discuss the elements of DQ, and how it can be applied to individual decisions and at an organizational level. The advantages of achieving organisational DQ will be addressed, as well as some of the potential barriers and how these may be overcome.

*Clinic 3: 'Visualization of Uncertainty' with Polina Levontin and Jana Kleineberg
The aim of this 2.5-hour workshop is to review the state of visualisation of uncertainty, to share experiences from different fields, and to run an interactive clinic with a focus on several case studies which we will prepare in advance. If you would like the workshop to address a problem in your field, please get in touch with Polina Levontin and graphic designer Jana Kleineberg, who will be leading the workshop. Please send us a brief description of your case study, and current visualisations if available. The earlier you submit, the more time we will have to develop new approaches to visualisation and/or suggest improvements to existing ones.

*Clinic 4: 'Dynamic Adaptive Pathways' with Geoff Darch
Dynamic adaptation pathways provide a technique for strategic planning that helps make decisions on which (sets of) options perform robustly over time and under uncertainty. This session will describe the evolution of the pathways approach, with practical examples provided. The work of the British Standards Institute in developing new guidance for adaptation pathways will be introduced. Participants will be able to discuss the use of adaptation pathways in their own work.

*Pop-up talks*: A 'pop-up talk' is five-minute presentation of i) a decision-making problem your organisation faced that was complicated by risk and uncertainty; ii) the approach taken by you organisation to address risk and uncertainty; and iii) the results of the decision made and any lessons learned regarding the approach taken.


The workshop ran four simulations in parallel, each with the same scenario described and presented in the same way.  The key objective of these simulations was: To identify what issues, events, behaviours, responses, etc. the participants perceive as being uncertain in the scenario  and whether these are broadly common across groups.

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On 27th and 28th February 2018, a workshop was held at the Royal Geographical Society to discuss Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision-makers.  The workshop attracted a broad set of audiences Including defence, water, energy, forestry, engineering sector and academia.

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Together with Atkins, UK Energy Research Centre and the Centre for Environmental Policy (CEP), the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London hosted a workshop in February 2016 exploring tools and frameworks for decision making under risk and uncertainty.

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Atkins and Imperial College sought to discuss with practitioners and academics how game theory tools can facilitate strategic analysis of complex energy and resources management problems for policy makers and the private sector.  The workshop sought to develop UK capacity to better understand Game Theory tools. 

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